July 30, 2026
According to the latest report by Deloitte and Google on the future of commerce in India, India’s e-retail market is projected to skyrocket nearly threefold from $90 billion in 2025 to surpass $250 billion by 2030.
This expansion is fueled by the influx of 150 million new online shoppers and a doubling of individual ecommerce spend. At the center of this compounding growth is a cohort of 220 million Gen Z consumers, which is single-handedly projected to drive 45% of all e-commerce spend by 2030
For marketers, success in 2030 will depend on mastering the four forces redefining the future of retail - inspired, immersive, instant, and intelligent commerce
Inspired Commerce
The first force, inspired commerce, is driven by creator-led marketing, with creators expected to influence 1 in 3 retail purchases by 2030. Creator-owned microstores and videos are expected to contribute between 9-11% of India’s total e-commerce Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) by 2030, guiding up to 60 million more people from Tier 2+ cities online.
Marketers must build scalable, always-on creator-led marketing by collaborating with creators in programs like the YouTube Shopping affiliate programme and through diverse ad formats. For example, shopping platform Ajio achieved a 2X surge in conversion rates and 1.5X higher return on ad spend using Creator Partnerships Boost. Furthermore, the recently launched YouTube Affiliate Partnerships Boost, helps brands scale authentic creator videos where their products are tagged directly into ad campaigns.
Immersive Commerce
The second force, immersive commerce, meets customer demands for the best of online and in-store worlds using immersive technologies like interactive in-store experiences and augmented reality (AR) or virtual reality (VR) tools.
For example, Google Virtual Try-On lets users picture how clothing looks on them. Our consumer research shows that 3 in 4 shoppers are willing to pay for in-store experiences, and online immersive tools can drive incremental spend from 1 in 2 shoppers.
Instant Commerce
The third force, instant commerce, is driven by hyper-localised order fulfilment, leading to a 6X surge in quick commerce GMV to $50B by 2030 as delivery times compress to minutes. About 30% of this market will be driven by consumers in Tier 2 cities and beyond. Marketers must re-architect operations with agile assortments and utilize tools like Commerce Media Suite to reach high-intent shoppers across Google’s surfaces and drive them directly to your listings on quick commerce channels. That’s how Renee Cosmetics drove traffic to its quick commerce channel partner, growing sales by 11.5% and lowering cost per acquisition by 48%.
Intelligent Commerce
For the marketer of 2030, AI will be a dual lever for profitable growth: It will streamline backend operations and simplify shoppers’ decision-making, boosting retail profitability by 30% to 35%.
Two-thirds of this increase is driven by enterprise AI integration, and the remainder comes from agentic commerce growth as shoppers embrace AI.
Brands can prepare by building their agentic commerce foundation and adopting the full stack of AI solutions. Marketers must create intelligent consumer experiences by structuring product content for multimodal AI-powered Search, use new Search ad formats such as Business Agent for Leads and agentic tools like Ask Advisor and be ready for Universe Commerce Protocol to prepare for agentic execution.
